heathervescent

Tracking Vectors

An astute observation about launching innovative technology from last month's NYTimes article on the ipad. When launching a product, innovative technology or novel concept, timing isn't everything; but it can be the difference between you personally having success with that technology - and someone else with different (later) timing. Its one of the things that feels so unfair in new technology: that the earliest adopters, the earliest users, evangelists and sometimes even the original creators & inventors do not get the monetary or fame that goes along with the breaking innovation.

Timing is essential to make such big steps ahead. Carver Mead, a leading computer scientist at the California Institute of Technology, once said, “Listen to the technology; find out what it’s telling you.”

Mr. Jobs is undeniably a gifted marketer and showman, but he is also a skilled listener to the technology. He calls this “tracking vectors in technology over time,” to judge when an intriguing innovation is ready for the marketplace. Technical progress, affordable pricing and consumer demand all must jell to produce a blockbuster product.

This is something I have watched happen many times, and it is a well known phenomenon in some VC funding and technology circles. It's the difference between financial success (and the ability to fund later innovative ventures) and (for me) feelings of failing the technology. (In the end though, the technology will make it to the mainstream, through a meandering and strange path, possibly obscure.)

As I work on my Masters in Technology/Future Forecasting, these trends are something I am watching like a hawk. I want to understand and predict/forecast when society is primed and the time is right for launching these technologies. I know these answers in my gut, but gut is not empirical evidence.

The Spotlight Challenge

Despite a trip to the emergency room due to a gogo boot related accident, the Bootie LA show last night was a blast. There was champagne backstage and we really did have 99 red balloons that we unleashed into the crowd.

Jillian was my most awesome pregnant backup dancer (I mean, if the pregnant lady can do it, what's your excuse?) She wrangled Kate, who had these awesome leopard print boots and really rocked the last minute dancing! Carmen put on the judge wig and robe and rocked the authority. It all came together at the last minute - as it always does.

Photos coming soon! Video is here.

Grumble

My love/hate inner conflict with boingboing continues. But it's all good. I love the byline. If only they saw the internal project list....

The Gun Goes Off

I've always thought you have to do a lot of work to get to the starting line. I've spent years in school. Practicing in the dojo. I've wondered why they've kept a thoroughbred like me in the back pasture, far away from the starting line. I've run the rat race. I got out. I dreamed my dream life and then I created my dream life. I don't have anything to prove. The world is at my feet, but I'm looking up into the wind. I don't run with the dogs, but I have one. I infiltrate cliches & cliques and then break them. I start fires on the mountain and build the cairns to help you find them. I have been known to stir the pot.

-- an auspicious story--
I picked up my first handgun at the beginning of this month. It is a Walther PP - James Bond's gun. Mine is not new. It's from West Germany and was crafted 17 years ago. It has a smooth blue black finish and a nice heft. I saw it in the case and knew it was mine.

I was an excited teenage girl on her first date when we went to the range. I filled the magazine, hung up the target and put it in place. I slid the magazine in place, racked the slide, raised my hands to aim and pulled my finger to shoot the first bullet.

My silence was fixated on the bullseye. The explosion, there was no kick. But I couldn't believe what I saw. Bullseye!

My very first shot on a clean target - Bullseye. Let me say that again - My first shot with a new gun = Bullseye! BULLSEYE! BULLSEYE! Unbroken target except for the center.

It was not a fluke. I proceeded to empty the magazine in the center circles. All fears I had about owning a firearm dissipated. It's not about politics or aggression or protection or posing to be all bad ass - it's about listening. It's about paying attention. It's the silence before the dive. It's the intention. It's about going someplace you've never gone before.

Welcome to 34 Heather. Here's to a whole year of going someplace you've never gone before: The Mainstream. And doing what you do best there.

Forcasting the Future

I love those silly polls where you answer a few questions and they tell you what your superpower or enlightenment level or whatever the meme of the moment is, so you can use it as a pick-up line. Sometimes I take it a few times tweaking my answers to see if it changes the response.

It was not at one of these internet polls that I discovered my "super-power." I used a process of extrapolation to access my passionate strengths. I love to drive fast and "beat the clock". I'm constantly analyzing the past for patterns and understanding to apply to the future. I've know my future - sometimes specifically and sometimes in more vague conceptual blocks. These things led me to believe, if I had a superpower, it would be time travel. I already travel to the past, project/dream the future and play with the present.

That made me wonder, could I time travel for things beyond moi? And that's when I learned about future forecasting. I realized this was a fairly simple science at conference with Don Norman at the Palace of Fine Arts. It's basically past historical research, paying attention to current/not so current trends, technology and the direction in which it's moving (and where) and then extrapolation (one of my personal techniques).

Of course, you don't always end up with the actual reality from the extrapolation. It's part science, part art, part experience. So I would have loved to attend last night's talk with 25 year forecaster Paul Saffo. Luckily Stewart Brand send along his notes this morning. You can read them by clicking on the link....

A Story on Firestarting

I occasionally attend a multi-day gathering with friends at an old homesteader cabin in the Mojave. The area is desolate, and for one weekend we bring in generators and DJ equipment, a stage and about 80 people camp, party and generally have a good time. We shoot guns at the private range and generally engage in standard desert activities: eating, drinking, esoteric conversations and taking in the natural beauty of the desert. At night it is cold, so we have fires - inevitably started by yours truly.

In this particular weekend, it was unseasonably cold and as the sun set, everyone was gathered in and around the cabin. It was crammed in there while no one was paying attention to the cold desert beauty at dusk. So I went outside to start a fire. At first, it was just me and Sam, and a friend or two stopping by. We chucked more wood into it and really got it going. Then others came out and started adding wood and pretty soon there were a lot of people by the fire. The fire was going really well and people were enjoying adding wood and taking care of it. Since there were 2 other fire pit possibilities and plenty of wood, I moved onto start another fire in another location.

Same story as the first one. At first it was me and Sam (my firestarting partner) stacking the wood, the newspaper, twigs and lighting the match in several locations. We always get the fire started on the first try. Again, we were alone with the fire, but slowly folks moved from the first fire and others from the cabin came out to be around the second fire. It was closer to the stage and dance area so people would stop by to warm up between dancing and wandering.

The same thing happened for the third fire. At that point I would occasionally need to add wood to the previous other fires.

I feel like that's what happened here in LA Tech. There are tons of people around adding fuel to the fire, chucking on their own pieces of wood. Making a fire bigger and even starting their own. The fires are beautiful and roiling. It's very hot and going quite nicely.

Modern Mainstream percolation

The mainstream is composed of individuals each trying to be what they think they want to be. To succeed in the mainstream, you have to help all those individuals reach their goals (whether they know what they are or not). Approaching the mainstream as a homogenous lug isn't going to make for success. I guess that's why I've failed/not been interested in the past. I've seen the mainstream as a clueless mob mass. Maybe that's the way it was in Marshal McLuhan's past, but not today. The mainstream is universe of stars. "Every man and woman is a star" A.C.

So to enter the modern mainstream, you must appeal to the concept of individuals, not mass.

I've got some observations about Apple and Google on this topic, but I've got a lot of work and I more or less took the day off yesterday, so must get crackin!